Thinking of staying up late this Tuesday as the votes for the US Presidential Election are counted? Look no further – here’s a (hopefully) handy guide that I’ve put together for you to keep track as the results come in. Click here to scroll down to the swing-state cheatsheet.
A Presidential candidate needs 270 Electoral Votes to win, which is the majority of the 538 Electoral Votes up for grabs (538 is the sum of one electoral vote for each of the Senators (100) and Congressmen (435) in the country, and 3 for Washington DC’s representatives).
| State | Electoral Votes | Expected Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 16 | Romney |
| Indiana | 11 | Romney |
| Kentucky | 8 | Romney |
| South Carolina | 9 | Romney |
| Vermont | 3 | Obama |
| Virginia | 13 | Toss-up [Currently: Obama (50.8) / Romney (48.6)] |
The South Carolina result is expected before 01.00 AM UK / 08.00 PM Eastern US. If the result in Virginia is too close to call, we could see legal challenges draw the Presidential Election result out until Friday. In Indiana, a Romney win by a margin over 11% will indicate that this is a good night for the Republican Party.
Electoral Votes: (excl Virginia)
Obama 3 / Romney 44
| State | Electoral Votes | Expected Winner |
|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 15 | Romney |
| Ohio | 18 | Obama |
| West Virginia | 5 | Romney |
Electoral Votes: (excl Virginia)
Obama 21 / Romney 64
If Obama wins both North Carolina and Ohio, the game is over for Romney (Romney is expected to carry NC). Obama is still the favourite even if he loses Ohio. The Ohio result isn’t expected until after 1.00AM UK.
| State | Electoral Votes | Expected Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | Romney |
| Connecticut | 7 | Obama |
| Delaware | 3 | Obama |
| Washington DC | 3 | Obama |
| Florida | 29 | Toss-up [Currently: Obama 49.6 / Romney 49.9] |
| Illinois | 20 | Obama |
| Maine | 4 | Obama |
| Maryland | 10 | Obama |
| Massachusetts | 11 | Obama |
| Mississippi | 6 | Romney |
| Missouri | 10 | Romney |
| New Hampshire | 4 | Toss-up [Currently: Obama 51.4 / Romney 47.9] |
| New Jersey | 14 | Obama |
| Oklahoma | 7 | Romney |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | Obama |
| Rhode Island | 4 | Obama |
| Tennessee | 11 | Romney |
Electoral Votes: excluding Virginia (13), Florida (29), New Hampshire (4)
Obama 117 / Romney 107
The Romney campaign are secretly hoping for a surprise in Pennsylvania.
| State | Electoral Votes | Expected Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | 6 | Romney |
Electoral Votes: excluding Virginia (13), Florida (29), New Hampshire (4)
Obama 117 / Romney 113
| State | Electoral Votes | Expected Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 11 | Romney |
| Colorado | 9 | Romney |
| Kansas | 6 | Romney |
| Louisiana | 8 | Romney |
| Michigan | 16 | Obama |
| Minnesota | 10 | Obama |
| Nebraska | 5 | Romney |
| New Mexico | 5 | Obama |
| New York | 29 | Obama |
| South Dakota | 3 | Romney |
| Texas | 38 | Romney |
| Wisconsin | 10 | Tossup [Currently Obama(52.1) / Romney(47.2)] |
| Wyoming | 3 | Romney |
Electoral Votes: excluding Virginia (13), Florida (29), New Hampshire (4), Wisconsin (10)
Obama 177 / Romney 196
Virginia should definitely have been called by now, as should Florida and Ohio. If Ohio is still ‘too close to call’ at this point, this spells trouble for Obama.
The first Arizona election results should be due around 3.00 AM UK / 10 PM Eastern US
If Romney wins Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia – Obama must win Florida or else he’s out.
| State | Electoral Votes | Expected Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 6 | Toss-up [Currently: Obama 51.1 / Romney 47.9] |
| Montana | 3 | Romney |
| Nevada | 6 | Toss-up [Currently: Obama 51.5 / Romney 47.5] |
| Utah | 6 | Romney |
Obama can afford to lose Iowa and Nevada, provided he hasn’t lost Florida AND either Virginia/Wisconsin
| State | Electoral Votes | Expected Winner |
|---|---|---|
| California | 55 | Obama |
| Hawaii | 4 | Obama |
| Idaho | 4 | Romney |
| North Dakota | 3 | Romney |
| Oregon | 7 | Obama |
| Washington | 12 | Obama |
Iowa and Nevada will have been called by now, and the TV networks should be able to project polls (based on exit polls) at this time.
| State | Electoral Votes | Expected Winner |
|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 4 | Romney |
Assuming the legal challenges aren’t piling up in Florida and Ohio, the losing candidate will have conceded in a private phone call to the winning candidate. Victory/concession speeches should be imminent at this point, if all goes to plan.
Swing State Watchlist
| State | Voting Ends At | Current polling |
|---|---|---|
| Virginia (13) | Midnight UK / 07.00 pm Eastern US | Obama 50.8 / Romney 48.6 |
| Ohio (18) | 12.30 AM UK / 07.30 PM Eastern US | Obama 51.1 / Romney 47.9 |
| North Carolina (15) | 12.30 AM UK / 07.30 PM Eastern US | Obama 48.9 / Romney 50.6 |
| Florida (29) | 01.00 AM UK / 08.00 PM Eastern US | Obama 49.6 / Romney 49.9 |
| New Hampshire (4) | 01.00 AM UK / 08.00 PM Eastern US | Obama 51.4 / Romney 47.9 |
| Pennsylvania (20) | 01.00 AM UK / 08.00 PM Eastern US | Obama 52.4 / Romney 46.7 |
| Colorado (9) | 02.00 AM UK / 09.00 PM Eastern US | Obama 50.4 / Romney 48.7 |
| Wisconsin (10) | 02.00 AM UK / 9.00 PM Eastern US | Obama 52.1 / Romney 47.2 |
| Iowa (6) | 03.00 AM UK / 10.00 PM Eastern US | Obama 51.1 / Romney 47.9 |
| Nevada (6) | 03.00 AM UK / 10.00 PM Eastern US | Obama 51.5 / Romney 47.5 |
PS: I’m no fan of Obama, but for this electoral cycle my preference is firmly ANYONE BUT ROMNEY, so you may notice a slight pro-Obama bias in some of the wording above.
“former US Presidential campaign adviser (Kerry 04, Clinton 08)”
In other words, arch-lefty, hence your hatred of all things Republican. Just be honest!
Totally agree with your PS. Also, hoping that if we are lucky enough to get the miracle of winning the House & Senate again, that we can get MUCH better results than last time. I am SO tired of wimpy Dems rolling over.
Great summary Jag. Have you seen the BBC’s Predict the President. Mine was 275 v 263, which I later realised is incredibly close to BBC North America correspondent Mark Mardell’s 274 v 264. Let’s hope it isn’t that close and Obama wins by a slightly bigger margin. Mine is based on Obama losing Florida, but still winning.
If Obama wins , with his record, what will the deficit be in another 4 years. No-one considers the kids who are going to have to pay for their own bills as well as the debt dumped on them. And Clinton’s now a Grandee Dem-no word of his subprime botch-up that set this all going. Obama comes over a a bit slow and dumb, anyone come across any policies in his speeches other than time for change (again). Have you seen the youtube clips of him greeting foreign leaders- same spiel to all-‘no greater friend’ eyc.
He’s black-thats what seems to count
I find it bizarre that you don’t classify Ohio as a toss-up.