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Your Guide to Election Night 2012 US Presidential Campaign

Thinking of staying up late this Tuesday as the votes for the US Presidential Election are counted? Look no further – here’s a (hopefully) handy guide that I’ve put together for you to keep track as the results come in. Click here to scroll down to the swing-state cheatsheet.

A Presidential candidate needs 270 Electoral Votes to win, which is the majority of the 538 Electoral Votes up for grabs (538 is the sum of one electoral vote for each of the Senators (100) and Congressmen (435) in the country, and 3 for Washington DC’s representatives).

Polls closing at Midnight UK / 7PM Eastern US
StateElectoral VotesExpected Winner
Georgia16Romney
Indiana11Romney
Kentucky8Romney
South Carolina9Romney
Vermont3Obama
Virginia13Toss-up [Currently: Obama (50.8) / Romney (48.6)]

The South Carolina result is expected before 01.00 AM UK / 08.00 PM Eastern US. If the result in Virginia is too close to call, we could see legal challenges draw the Presidential Election result out until Friday. In Indiana, a Romney win by a margin over 11% will indicate that this is a good night for the Republican Party.

Electoral Votes: (excl Virginia)
Obama 3 / Romney 44

Polls closing at 12.30 AM UK / 7.30pm Eastern US
StateElectoral VotesExpected Winner
North Carolina15Romney
Ohio18Obama
West Virginia5Romney

Electoral Votes: (excl Virginia)
Obama 21 / Romney 64

If Obama wins both North Carolina and Ohio, the game is over for Romney (Romney is expected to carry NC). Obama is still the favourite even if he loses Ohio. The Ohio result isn’t expected until after 1.00AM UK.

Polls closing at 1 AM UK / 8PM Eastern US
StateElectoral VotesExpected Winner
Alabama9Romney
Connecticut7Obama
Delaware3Obama
Washington DC3Obama
Florida29Toss-up [Currently: Obama 49.6 / Romney 49.9]
Illinois20Obama
Maine4Obama
Maryland10Obama
Massachusetts11Obama
Mississippi6Romney
Missouri10Romney
New Hampshire4Toss-up [Currently: Obama 51.4 / Romney 47.9]
New Jersey14Obama
Oklahoma7Romney
Pennsylvania20Obama
Rhode Island4Obama
Tennessee11Romney

Electoral Votes: excluding Virginia (13), Florida (29), New Hampshire (4)
Obama 117 / Romney 107

The Romney campaign are secretly hoping for a surprise in Pennsylvania.

Polls closing at 1.30 AM UK / 8.30 PM Eastern US
StateElectoral VotesExpected Winner
Arkansas6Romney

Electoral Votes: excluding Virginia (13), Florida (29), New Hampshire (4)
Obama 117 / Romney 113

Polls closing at 2.00 AM UK / 9 PM Eastern US
StateElectoral VotesExpected Winner
Arizona11Romney
Colorado9Romney
Kansas6Romney
Louisiana8Romney
Michigan16Obama
Minnesota10Obama
Nebraska5Romney
New Mexico5Obama
New York29Obama
South Dakota3Romney
Texas38Romney
Wisconsin10Tossup [Currently Obama(52.1) / Romney(47.2)]
Wyoming3Romney

Electoral Votes: excluding Virginia (13), Florida (29), New Hampshire (4), Wisconsin (10)
Obama 177 / Romney 196
Virginia should definitely have been called by now, as should Florida and Ohio. If Ohio is still ‘too close to call’ at this point, this spells trouble for Obama.

The first Arizona election results should be due around 3.00 AM UK / 10 PM Eastern US

If Romney wins Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia – Obama must win Florida or else he’s out.

Polls closing at 3.00 AM UK / 10PM Eastern US
StateElectoral VotesExpected Winner
Iowa6Toss-up [Currently: Obama 51.1 / Romney 47.9]
Montana3Romney
Nevada6Toss-up [Currently: Obama 51.5 / Romney 47.5]
Utah6Romney

Obama can afford to lose Iowa and Nevada, provided he hasn’t lost Florida AND either Virginia/Wisconsin

Polls closing at 4.00 AM UK / 11.00 PM Eastern US
StateElectoral VotesExpected Winner
California55Obama
Hawaii4Obama
Idaho4Romney
North Dakota3Romney
Oregon7Obama
Washington12Obama

Iowa and Nevada will have been called by now, and the TV networks should be able to project polls (based on exit polls) at this time.

Polls closing at 5.00 AM UK / Midnight Eastern US
StateElectoral VotesExpected Winner
Alaska4Romney

Assuming the legal challenges aren’t piling up in Florida and Ohio, the losing candidate will have conceded in a private phone call to the winning candidate. Victory/concession speeches should be imminent at this point, if all goes to plan.

Swing State Watchlist

State Voting Ends At Current polling
Virginia (13)Midnight UK / 07.00 pm Eastern US Obama 50.8 / Romney 48.6
Ohio (18) 12.30 AM UK / 07.30 PM Eastern US Obama 51.1 / Romney 47.9
North Carolina (15) 12.30 AM UK / 07.30 PM Eastern US Obama 48.9 / Romney 50.6
Florida (29)01.00 AM UK / 08.00 PM Eastern US Obama 49.6 / Romney 49.9
New Hampshire (4)01.00 AM UK / 08.00 PM Eastern US Obama 51.4 / Romney 47.9
Pennsylvania (20)01.00 AM UK / 08.00 PM Eastern US Obama 52.4 / Romney 46.7
Colorado (9)02.00 AM UK / 09.00 PM Eastern US Obama 50.4 / Romney 48.7
Wisconsin (10)02.00 AM UK / 9.00 PM Eastern US Obama 52.1 / Romney 47.2
Iowa (6) 03.00 AM UK / 10.00 PM Eastern US Obama 51.1 / Romney 47.9
Nevada (6) 03.00 AM UK / 10.00 PM Eastern US Obama 51.5 / Romney 47.5

PS: I’m no fan of Obama, but for this electoral cycle my preference is firmly ANYONE BUT ROMNEY, so you may notice a slight pro-Obama bias in some of the wording above.

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